Campaigning situation
The Netherlands’ political and social situation is markedly unstable following the murder of filmmaker Theo van Gogh. A third of the population claims to have lost all faith in Dutch political institutions, and in October three hundred thousand people demonstrated against cuts in public services. The issue of Turkish accession to the EU is highly significant; the nationalist politician Geert Wilders, who left the liberal, right-wing VVD party, regularly warns against Turkish EU membership. Because of the threat of attack from extremist muslim groups, he is currently under police protection, although polls show that were an election held at the moment a party headed by him would gain 23 seats in parliament.
With the exception of some small parties - the SP (Socialistische Partij), LPF (Lijst Pim Fortuyn), ChristenUnie, SGP (Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij) and the Groep-Wilders - the mainstream parties are broadly in favour of the EU Constitution. Some small NGOS have established an anti-Constitution network called ‘Constitution No’, which claims that the constitution promotes neo-liberalism and military expansion, and does not correct a lack of democracy in the EU. They are preparing to publish a document in March and have drawn up a list of anti-Constitution speakers, as well as opening a website. Despite this, the Constitution is not high on the Dutch political agenda; larger NGO, the unions, peace movements and the intellectual elite have not joined the debate on the constitution and the media give the issue little coverage.
A consultative referendum on the Constitution will be held in May or June 2005. Campaigners will work to ensure a fair referendum, and also to ensure a good turnout; this will be a decisive factor in the result, especially given the referendum’s consultative nature. A close ‘no’ vote may be ignored if the turnout it low. Some estimate that a successful ‘no’ campaign might increase the no vote by fifteen to twenty per cent.
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