Czech hesitancy jeopardizes EU constitution
The Prime Minister says he is confident the country will approve the EU constitution. Many experts are not so sure.
With an outspoken Euroskeptic as president and a high proportion of undecided voters, the Czech Republic is among the three or four countries posing the greatest threat to the constitutional treaty and thus to the European Union's future, analysts say.
"This group of countries is problematic. They are not in a situation where a 'yes' vote on the constitution is absolutely guaranteed," said Richard Whitman of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, a think-tank based in London.
Unlike Spain, where 77 percent of voters approved the treaty Feb. 20 in Europe's first referendum on the constitution, the Czech Republic belongs to a group of "at-risk" states, along with Poland, Britain and possibly France, according to Whitman.
On the face of it, this categorization may seem unfair. Some 40 percent of Czechs are in favor of the constitution, while 20 percent are against the treaty, which must be ratified by every EU member state before the end of October 2006 in order for it to take effect.
In comparison, only two in 10 Britons are for the constitution, and three in 10 are against.
The statistics, which come from a survey released by EU polling agency Eurobarometer in January, place this country as the eighth most skeptical in Europe.
However, most of the states where popular support for the treaty is lower are expected to vote on the constitution in their parliaments rather than putting the question to the people in a referendum (although Britain is to hold a plebiscite). The latter step is seen by many experts as less certain to produce a result in favor of the constitution in some countries.
Deputy Foreign Minister Vladimir Muller recently said he expects the constitution to be voted on in a plebiscite, which could be held simultaneously with the general election scheduled for mid-2006, rather than in Parliament.
Another cause of anxiety for observers in Brussels is the anti-treaty rhetoric of President Vaclav Klaus, who has asked the Constitutional Court whether the constitution is in harmony with that of the Czech Republic. "You have a president who is, how shall we put it, less than enthusiastic about the constitutional treaty. He is a stick in the spokes in term of slowing up the process," Whitman said.
The Eurobarometer poll showed that 42 percent of Czechs did not know whether they were for or against the constitution, higher than the number who were in favor.
"The public at large will not read this document. It's too long," Whitman said. "What they will turn to in making their judgments are trusted sources of information."
Klaus, therefore, could play a key role. A poll by the CVVM agency in January found that the president remains the politician Czechs trust most, with almost two-thirds expressing their confidence in him.
Another key factor that could contribute to this country's "risk" status is the low turnout predicted in a referendum. Eurobarometer found that just 19 percent of Czechs were absolutely certain they would vote, the lowest figure in a survey of nine countries holding referenda.
"The question is what turnout is necessary to make the vote valid. That's one of the things that could kill a document," Whitman said.
The country has still not passed a special law needed to organize a referendum.
Jindrich Marek, a spokesman for the Cabinet Office, said it was too early to comment on what percentage of voters would have to go to the polls in any plebiscite for the result to be binding. "Questions on the referendum are premature as everything is still in the state of contemplation and plans," Marek added.
During an official visit to France, Prime Minister Stanislav Gross said Feb. 15 he was confident that the EU constitution will be approved in the Czech Republic, but he added, "The situation is not simple" due to resistance by the senior opposition Civic Democrats and the junior opposition Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia. Both parties had a strong showing in last year's European Parliament elections.
One factor that could encourage a "yes" result in a plebiscite, however, is the campaign the government is expected to wage if it formally decides to hold a referendum.
The Cabinet must soon decide "whether it should be for a campaign that would directly support the approval of the constitution or whether it should be of a purely informative character and sterile and only explain what the constitution means," the Czech News Agency quoted an unnamed source as saying. The agency added that the source was "well acquainted with the issue."
Milan Cabrnoch, a member of the European Parliament and a Civic Democrat, said he expects the government to launch a campaign in favor of the constitutional treaty. "The government campaign ahead of the referendum [in June 2003] on EU entry was strongly pushing people to vote yes, to support entry ...
"Should the next campaign be as full of slogans and emotions and so short on information, then I would consider this unfair to citizens," added Cabrnoch, who voted against the constitution when the European Parliament endorsed it in January.
Asked if it was fair to consider the Czech Republic among the three or four EU countries where approval of the constitutional agreement is most uncertain, Foreign Ministry spokesman Richard Krpac said, "I wouldn't like to prejudge the issue; it is too early to say so."
Cabinet Office spokesman Marek declined to comment when asked what the government's campaign would look like.
Despite rules requiring the constitution to be approved by every member state, some observers have suggested that failure to ratify it by a new EU member will not derail the treaty and that a country such as the Czech Republic could be given the option of holding another vote, or a special arrangement that separates them from the union.
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