Chirac tries to buy off the ‘non’ vote

In the hope of avoiding more labour unrest before a crucial referendum on the European constitution in May, President Jacques Chirac has adopted the standard French reflex: he has reached for the chequebook.

Despite objections from government figures, including the finance minister, who claim the state cannot afford a 1% salary increase for civil servants, Chirac on Friday called for a truce and talks with the unions. “Make concessions,” the president was said to have told the prime minister.

After a series of protests about pay, Chirac is keen to avoid further confrontation, fearing that his increasingly unpopular government rather than the European constitution may be the target of a “no” vote in the referendum on May 29.

This would be a humiliation for Chirac, 73, who could hardly avoid seeing it as a vote of no confidence, and for France, which has been one of the constitution’s cheerleaders. It could result in the constitutional project being consigned to oblivion.

Already the education minister has caved in to demands from students not to change the school-leaving exam; and Jean-Pierre Raffarin, the prime minister, has rejected the European Commission services directive that was a favourite punchbag of French unions.

A pay rise is harder for the government to accept without making a mockery of its pledges of economic reform. If implemented, it will infuriate Thierry Breton, the finance minister appointed only two weeks ago when the previous incumbent departed under a cloud of scandal.

The stakes for Chirac, who fears his government may fall in the event of a “no” vote, have never been higher. The same goes for Germany’s Chancellor Gerhard Schröder.

When Chirac privately told Schröder last year of his misgivings about holding a referendum on the EU constitution, Schröder smugly declared that in Germany referendums were banned and the treaty would be approved by an act of parliament.

Yet a “non” from France, besides wrecking Chirac’s plans for keeping power, could also affect Schröder’s chances of re-election, damaging his party’s vision of a Franco- German economic powerhouse to rival America.

Only a few months ago, such an outcome seemed unthinkable. But big protests last week in which teachers, railway workers, postmen and civil servants demanded better pay and the protection of their 35-hour week have fuelled fears that an increasingly restive population may vote against the constitution to punish Chirac and his ineffectual government.

Under the rules, each of the 25 members must approve the treaty, meaning that a “no” vote by any country puts paid to the constitution, drafted by the former French president Valéry Giscard d’Estaing.

An adviser to Giscard put a brave face on the uncertainty, saying it was “not the end of the world” if some countries voted against the constitution. “There could be a solution under which a country voting against the treaty could be given a year to reconsider,” he said. This was the process by which Ireland ratified the Nice treaty.

Yet even Giscard acknowledges that a “no” vote from France would be a terrible example to the rest of Europe. The Dutch may be tempted to follow suit in their referendum three days later; one poll already shows 42% against it and only 29% in favour.

Spain may have given an overwhelming “yes” to the constitution, which provides for an EU foreign minister, curbs each state’s right to veto new measures and transfers more powers to the European parliament, but the Spanish 42.3% turnout was worryingly low. In France, polls show that Chirac is right to be worried. The “yes” vote has shrunk to 58%, three points down on a month ago.

Political pundits compare it to the referendum on the Maastricht treaty in 1992, when support for the “no” campaign grew substantially ahead of the vote. The “yes” camp only narrowly prevailed. Will the same happen this time? This year the French have more reasons than ever to be searching for a club with which to beat their leaders over the head. Efforts to make the law on the 35-hour week more flexible have prompted howls of opposition, as has attempted streamlining of the civil service. Chirac’s approval rating has slid to 36%, compared with 41% in January.

Source: The Sunday Times