French 'Non' climbs to 58 per cent

The latest poll indicates a record score for the French no to the EU Constitution. However, the EU presidency intends to push for all referenda to go ahead.

The signs of a French no vote on 29 May grew as a fresh BVA poll published on 22 April indicated a record 58 per cent no vote. The growth in the no vote is attributed to a 7 per cent growth among the voters on the left, while the yes vote grew by respectively one and five percent among the votes of the UMP and UDF parties.

Meanwhile speculation continued as to what the EU countries scheduled to hold referenda after a possible French no should do.

The EU's Luxembourg presidency plans to issue a statement calling on other member states to ratify the treaty as normal, in the event of a French No on May 29.

But diplomats in Britain, which takes over the EU presidency on July 1, believe the treaty would be dead if rejected in the French referendum. Privately they expect the UK to cancel its own poll in 2006.

French officials also believe the treaty could not be revived, and that the best hope would be to try to salvage some parts of the text at a later date.

Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg prime minister, believes a French No or a rejection by the Dutch in their referendum on June 1 should not stop the ratification of the treaty.

“The process will continue,” said an EU presidency official. “Just because the French have said No, does that mean that they decide for the whole of Europe? That would be undemocratic.”

Mr Juncker argues that the EU constitution envisages all countries trying to ratify the treaty, with a decision taken at the end of the process on how to deal with “one or more member states” which failed.

Tony Blair, British prime minister, insisted this week the UK would proceed with its referendum: “It does not matter what other countries do,” he said.

But privately British and French officials agree that a rejection of the treaty by a large founding member would kill it. “France voting No is a real No,” says one senior EU diplomat.

European diplomats fear paralysis in the EU, possibly disrupting the start of accession talks with Turkey scheduled for October 3.

Marek Belka, Polish prime minister, said on Monday that rejection of the constitution would “completely change the way the EU negotiates with Turkey”.

A decision on how to proceed in the event of a No vote in France or the Netherlands would be taken at an EU summit on June 16-17.

Michel Barnier, French foreign minister, on Thursday renewed his pleas for a Yes vote: “If a country said No to the constitution it would weaken not just the country, it would weaken the EU, economically and politically,” he said. Speaking at a Nato meeting in Lithuania, Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state, gave tacit support to the constitution: “From our point of view, the continued success of the European construction is important.

Source: FT ; Euractiv